Prospect Smackdown: J.R. Towles vs. Geovany Soto

From Sickle's

今年國聯中區會有兩個菜鳥先發捕手，而另外兩個中區未來的菜鳥死對頭Rasmus和Bruce還在卡位置．　他們有機會去競爭國聯的新人王，在同一個分區同樣的守備位置，被比較的機會會很多．　兩個捕手的型態是不太相同的，一個是重武裝帶靈巧，另一個是靈巧帶破壞力．

Background and Intangibles
Towles:

J.R. Towles was drafted in the 20th round in 2004, out of North Central Texas Junior College by the Astros. He hit just .243 in his pro debut in the Appy League, but a .346/.436/.549 outburst in the Sally League in '05 drew notice, granted he was limited to 45 games by injury. Towles has remained a very effective hitter throughout the minors, though nagging injuries have slowed his defensive progress. He hit great in the majors late last year and is expected to be the starting catcher this spring for Houston. Scouts like his leadership skills.

Towles是04年20輪，從North Central Texas Junior College被太空人選上．　他在Appy League的新人年只打出.243的成績，但是他05年在Sally League爆發儘管他因為受傷只打了45場比賽，.346/.436/.549的成績開始讓人注意到他．　Towles在小聯盟一直都維持是個相當有效率的打者，不過惱人的小傷一直在延遲他防守的進步．　他去年底在大聯盟的表現很棒，今年春天會是太空人的先發捕手．　球探很欣賞他的領導能力．

Soto:

Soto was drafted in the 11th round in 2001, out of high school in Rio Piedras, Puerto Rico by the Cubs. He quickly drew notice as a solid defender with an adequate bat, reaching Triple-A in 2005 at age 22. Regarded as a future backup, he had a stupendous and surprising 2007 season, hitting .353/.424/.652 in Triple-A and .389/.433/.667 in the majors, thrusting him up the　prospect lists. He is expected to be Chicago's starting catcher this spring. Scouts like his leadership skills.

Soto是01年11輪，從Rio Piedras High School被小熊選上．　他很快的以他優秀的防守和不錯的打擊引起注意，05年就以22歲的年齡登上3A．　被視為未來補手答案的他在07年有個讓人驚艷的球季，3A - .353/.424/.652； MLB - .389/.433/.667，在prospect的排名大大翻升．　他預期是小熊今年春天的先發捕手．　球探很欣賞他的領導能力．

Advantage:

Neither player was a hot pick when drafted, and although the paths each has taken to get where they are now have been quite different, both are well-regarded as field leaders. Looks even to　me, if different.

兩個人都不是前段順位，儘管兩個人的用不同的成長路線走到到現在的位置，他們都被視為優秀的場上領導者．　在我看來兩個人打平．


Physicality, Health, and Tools
Towles:

Towles was born February 11, 1984. A right-handed hitter and thrower, he is listed at 6-2, 190 pounds. An excellent athlete, he is wiry strong and has much more speed than the average catcher. On defense, he features a strong arm and tons of mobility, but needs additional polish　with his throwing mechanics. With the bat, he has the bat speed to hit for a high batting average with moderate power, along with decent though unspectacular plate discipline. Injuries have been a factor: finder and hand injuries cost him substantial playing time in 2005 and 2006, and some scouts are concerned that his wiry frame may not hold up to a long grind particularly well.

Towles生於1984/02/11．　右投右打，資料上是身高6-2，體重190磅．　他有傑出的運動能力，瘦但是結實，他的速度遠優於捕手平均．　防守上，他有強壯的手臂和靈巧的移動，但是他傳球的動作還需要磨練．　打擊方面，他的揮棒速度讓他能維持高打擊率伴隨不錯的長打能力，本壘板紀律則是略優於平均．　受傷可能是會影響他的因素之一，他的手傷讓他損失了05和06年不少成長的時間．　一些球探擔心他偏瘦的體型可能讓他沒辦法長期負擔捕手這個辛苦的位置．

Soto:

Soto was born January 20, 1983. A right-handed hitter and thrower, he is listed at 6-1, 200 pounds. He weight as much as 230 pounds in the past, but went on a fierce workout and fitness program last spring with excellent results. Even when he was heavier, he was a good athlete, but losing the pounds has increased his quickness both offensively and defensively. He has a strong arm and is fine all-around with the glove. With the bat his plate discipline has always been good and his strikeout rate moderate, and the addition of a touch more loft to his swing last year, and more muscle, enabled him to crush more balls. He has had some nagging injuries but nothing particularly serious.

Soto生於1983/01/20．　右投右打，資料上是身高6-1，體重200磅． 他的體重過去有230磅的紀錄，不過去年春訓的健身減肥計畫有很好的成效．　即使他之前胖的時候，他的運動能力還是相當優秀，但是減些體重對他的打擊和防守速度都有很大的幫助．　他的臂力很好，防守非常全面．　打擊方面，的本壘板紀律相當好，並且維持著不錯的三振率，加上他強壯的肌力，能夠打出更多的全壘打．　他有些小的傷病紀錄，但是都不是很嚴重．

Advantage:

Again, rather different but on balance close overall. Towles is the superior athlete, but Soto has been more durable. Soto has more current defensive polish, but Towles is improving. Soto had the outstanding 2007 season, but Towles has hit at every level every year since rookie ball, not just last year. My instinct here is that Soto is the safer bet in the short run, but that Towles has a higher upside, but also higher risk.

再一次雖然有些微不同但是整體來看又是很接近．　Towles有比較優秀的運動能力，但是Soto比較持久．　Soto目前的防守比較成熟，但是Towles也在成長．　Soto有相當成功的07年，但是Towles從菜鳥聯盟後在每年每個層級都打很好．　我的直覺告訴我Soto在短期來說會是比較好的賭注，但是Towles有比較高的潛力，但也伴隨較高的風險．

Performance and Polish
Towles:

Towles is a career .301/.395/.471 hitter at the minor league level, including .324/.425/.551 last year in the Texas League. Scouts say he hasn't fully tapped into his power yet, and that he needs additional polish on both offense and defense.

Towles小聯盟的生涯成績是.301/.395/.471，包括去年在Texas League.324/.425/.551的成績．　球探表示他還沒有完全展現出他的長打潛力，他在打擊和防守上都還需要磨練．

Soto:

Soto is a career .280/.360/.426 hitter at the minor league level. Even before his 2007 outburst he showed a solid OBP and occasional power spikes. The general consensus among Pacific Coast League observers I spoke with last year was that the power increase last year was legitimate, but that the batting average would drop against big-league pitching. He is more polished than Towles at this point both offensively and defensively.

Soto小聯盟的生涯成績是.280/.360/.426．　在他07完全爆發之前，他就有很棒的上壘率加上偶爾加菜的長打能力．　Pacific Coast League大部分的球探對他去年長打的爆發並不訝異．　但是當他面對大聯盟的投手時，打擊率會再下修．　他目前不論打擊上還是防守上都比Towles還要成熟．

Advantage:

An odd assessment: Towles has been more consistently productive through the minors, but is the also the guy considered to have less polish right now. Given his greater Triple-A experience I think you have to go with Soto here.

很詭異的評語，Towles在小聯盟表現的要比Soto要穩定的多，但是他卻被認為比較不成熟．　因為Soto在3A有較多的經驗，這部分還是Soto比較佔優．


Projection
Towles:

Towles projects as a starting catcher at the major league level, capable of hitting .280-.300, higher than that in his best years, with better speed than most catchers and solid defense, once he settles in and gets some experience. PECOTA comps include non-catches such as Raul Ibanez,
Corey Hart, and Jeff Cirillo, plus catchers such as A.J. Hinch and Eli Marrero. Upside VORP 111.1. It kind of looks like PECOTA is confused by Towles' profile somewhat and I think it underestimates what he is capable of in the long run.

Towles預計是今年大聯盟的先發捕手，能夠打出280-300的打擊率，在他的生涯年會比這個數字還要高，當他多些經驗並且成熟後，他會是個優秀的防守者加上比其他捕手快的速度．　PECOTA的類比包括了一些不是捕手的球員，像是Raul Ibanez，Corey Hart和Jeff Cirillo．　捕手則是A.J. Hinch和Eli Marrero．　樂觀的VORP是111.1．　PECOTA目前對Towles的過去紀錄類比還不是很明確，我認為對他長期的發展這部分他有被低估．

Soto:

Soto projects as a starting catcher at the major league level, capable of hitting .260-.280 with a high on-base percentage, good power, and solid defense. PECOTA comps include Charles Johnson, Ramon Hernandez, Todd Zeile, and Mike Macfarlane, but also Derek Parks and Tim Laudner. Upside VORP 155.3.

Soto預計是今年大聯盟的先發捕手，能夠打出260-280的打擊率，伴隨高上壘率；不錯的長打和優秀的防守．　PECOTA的類比包括Charles Johnson，Ramon Hernandez，Todd Zeile，Mike Macfarlane，Derek Parks和Tim Laudner．　樂觀的VORP預測是155.3．

Advantage:

Both should be very good, even excellent, but the shape of that goodness will differ. I agree that Soto probably won't be hitting .350 in the majors, but even at .260-.280 with walks and power he will be very good. Towles won't draw as many walks and I doubt he'll show as much power in the short run, but has a better chance to hit .300 or better down the line, and the power should increase as he matures.

兩個都很好，甚至是超好，但是兩個的優點會是不同的．　我相信Soto沒辦法打出350的打擊率，即使是260-280加上很多保送已經很好了．　Towles不會選出那麼多保送，短期內也不會有暴力的長打，但是他有比較高的機會達到300打擊率甚至未來會更好．　當成熟後，他的長打應該會再進化．


Summary

You can see why I picked this one for a smackdown. I regard Soto as the better bet for success this year, and a "safer" pick overall. But Towles has some really terrific upside given his athleticism. Overall I rate Soto a bit higher, but it's close considering how different the two player are.

很容易理解為什麼把他們綁在一起談．　我認為Soto今年會有比較好的表現，他也是比較保險的賭注．　但是Towles因為傑出的運動能力有很多更好的發展．　整體來看，我對Soto評價稍微高一些，但兩個很接近，因為要考量他們的型態是完全不同的．